Spring Inventory Reset: 7 Things to Do Before Q2

February is the quietest month in ecommerce for most stores. Sales are down from the holiday peak, returns have been processed, and the next big push — whether that's spring launches, Easter, or summer prep — is still a few weeks away.

That makes right now the best time to do something most merchants skip: a proper inventory reset. Clean up the mess from Q4, get your data accurate, and set yourself up so the rest of the year runs smoother. Here are seven things worth doing before Q2 starts.

1. Exclude Your Holiday Sales from Forecasting

If you ran Black Friday, Cyber Monday, or holiday promotions, your sales data from November and December is inflated. That's a problem if your forecasting tool is looking at recent sales to predict future demand — it'll tell you to reorder way more than you actually need.

In Sensible Forecasting, use the Exclude Sales setting to remove your promotional periods from the forecast calculation. This way, your reorder recommendations are based on your normal, non-promotional sales rate. If you haven't done this yet and you've been wondering why your forecasts seem aggressive — this is probably why.

2. Switch Your Sales Period Back to Normal

If you followed our holiday prep advice and switched to a shorter sales period (14 or 30 days) heading into Black Friday, it's time to switch back. A 14-day window made sense when demand was changing fast. In February, you want a longer view that smooths out the post-holiday dip.

For most stores, the 60-day or 90-day period (or weighted average) gives you the most stable baseline heading into spring. If your store has strong seasonality, the weighted average is particularly useful — it balances recent trends against longer-term patterns.

3. Do an Honest Overstock Audit

The holidays are great for revenue, but they often leave you with products that didn't sell as well as expected. February is the time to face that honestly. Look at what's sitting in your warehouse with more than 90 days of stock on hand.

For each overstocked product, decide now:

• Will it sell naturally over the next few months? If yes, just let your forecasting tool account for it. In Sensible Forecasting, the Deduct Existing Stock setting ensures current inventory is subtracted from reorder recommendations — so you won't accidentally order more of something you're already overstocked on.
• Is it seasonal and the season is over? Discount it now. Holding costs eat into your margins every month it sits there.
• Is it a permanent SKU that just had a slow holiday? Snooze it in your forecasting tool so it's not cluttering your reorder view, and revisit in 30 days.

4. Review and Update Your Lead Times

If you bumped up your lead times heading into Q4 to account for supplier delays, check whether those adjusted times are still accurate. Suppliers are typically faster in Q1 — order volumes across the industry are lower, shipping lanes are less congested, and processing times return to normal.

Overstated lead times mean you'll reorder too early, which ties up cash in inventory that could sit for weeks before you actually need it. Get your lead times back to their actual current values. If you're not sure, ask your suppliers directly — Q1 is when they're most responsive.

5. Clean Up Your Product Catalog

Over the course of the holidays, you may have added seasonal variants, gift bundles, or limited edition SKUs. If those are done, archive or set them to draft in Shopify. They're noise in your forecasting data otherwise.

In Sensible Forecasting, you can toggle Include Draft Products off (it's off by default) so archived products don't appear in your product table. If you have products that are technically active but you don't want to forecast — like products you're discontinuing or items that are made to order — use the snooze feature to hide them temporarily.

6. Check Your Safety Stock Level

Safety stock is your buffer against unexpected demand spikes and supplier delays. If you increased it for the holidays, bring it back down. Carrying extra safety stock in a slow month means you're tying up cash in buffer inventory you probably don't need.

For most stores, 7-14 days of safety stock is reasonable during normal trading periods. If you bumped it to 21+ days for the holidays, now's the time to reset. You can always increase it again when the next peak season approaches.

7. Set Up Regular Inventory Reports (If You Haven't Already)

If the holidays taught you anything, it's probably that surprises are expensive. Running out of a top seller because you weren't paying attention costs real revenue. Discovering you're overstocked on something only after it's been sitting for two months costs real margin.

The simplest habit you can build is a regular inventory status report. Sensible Forecasting sends you an email report — daily or weekly, your choice — that summarizes what's running low, what needs reordering soon, and what's overstocked. It takes two minutes to scan and catches problems before they become expensive.

If you've been "meaning to set this up," February is the month. Start the habit during a quiet period so it's second nature by the time things pick up again.

Start Q2 With Clean Data

None of this is glamorous work. It's the inventory equivalent of cleaning out your garage. But stores that take an hour or two to reset their settings, clean up their product data, and get their forecasting back to baseline will make better purchasing decisions for the rest of the year.

The stores that don't will spend Q2 wondering why their forecasts seem off, ordering too much of the wrong things, and reacting to problems that could have been prevented with a quick February tune-up.